As you’ll see in the attached report, the value of architectural glass and glazing activity (ongoing glass-related construction during the period) in the third quarter was up in commercial and institutional, but has finally come down slightly in multifamily.
Overall, this should be the last quarter we see double-digit percentage year-over-year growth for some time, with deceleration in the primary nonresidential segments as multifamily continues to slow. Why? Two reasons:
1. A pullback in construction starts in 2023 will translate to lower levels of glass and glazing activity over the next several quarters—likely starting in the fourth quarter of 2023 but mostly impacting 2024.
2. The rate of industry inflation (as witnessed in the flat glass and metal fenestration Price Indexes that we track) has finally leveled out of after two years of spiking. So we won’t see the price increases driving growth in the value of activity like we’ve had recently. In other words, moving forward, the year-over-year growth rates will reflect more “real” or current dollar year-over-year change as opposed to the changes being largely driven by cost/price increases.
Looking ahead (I know, this is everyone’s favorite part), expect overall architectural glass and glazing activity to flatten out or pull back slightly in 2024 before returning to much more moderate growth in the following years.